This is the action-ready bidding playbook. It supersedes the April 25 strategy doc and incorporates: the verified 3230 NW 64th gold-standard comp, the recalibrated Zillow cohort, the live signal from 7007 26th NW, the seller's voluntary disclosure of the Martin Fox inspection and Bob Oates sewer invoices, and the GC walkthrough. The companion analytical assessment shows the chain of reasoning that produced these numbers; this page is the playbook.
Plan around a Band 3.5 renovation (~$550K, range $420–$675K). Honest post-reno ARV $1.85M–$2.05M. All-in including renovation + displacement: ~$2.05M. Day-1 spread: roughly break-even, well within tolerance for a 7–15-year owner-occupied hold.
Edge to win: 21-day close · 5% earnest with $30K hard at MA · fully underwritten lender · all contingencies waived except financing · pre-offer diligence completed (the seller has already shared their full inspection and sewer invoices) · cover letter from Peter and Liz leaning into the family-staying-30-years narrative. Maggie has signaled the seller prefers a family. The credit ask is the substitute for inspection-contingency renegotiation.
Five things have landed since the original strategy doc was written. Each moved a specific number; together they tighten the recommendation toward the buyer.
Operative implication: the bid number narrows toward the buyer slightly ($1.45M instead of $1.475M), an explicit credit ask is added (was zero), the renovation budget is more honestly accounted for ($550K Band 3.5 instead of flat $600K), and the pre-offer diligence list shrinks because the seller has done most of it.
31 sales from the Zillow filtered set (98107/98117, >5,000 sqft lot, 2+ parking, 2025–2026, $1.0–2.6M), plus targeted Redfin verifications. Segmented into four cohorts to avoid the methodological problem in the original doc (which mixed renovated period homes with new builds and inflated the median).
| Address | Sold | Price | Sqft | $/sqft | BR/BA | Lot | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cohort A — Same-block / direct lot match (gold standard) | |||||||
| 3230 NW 64th St | Sep 5, 2025 | $2,500,000 | 3,050 | $820 | 5 / 3.5 | 8,100 | 1908 craftsman; period details preserved + luxury updates; view deck, theater, finished garage. SAME BLOCK + EXACT LOT MATCH. |
| 3042 NW 64th St | Oct 8, 2025 | $1,997,500 | 3,127 | $639 | 5 / 3.5 | 8,100 | 2021 ground-up new construction with built DADU. Direct neighbor; new-build cohort ceiling. |
| Cohort B — Renovated period homes, quiet streets (Band 3 ARV anchors, n=10, median $/sqft $612) | |||||||
| 7027 Alonzo Ave NW | Mar 23, 2026 | $1,575,000 | 2,280 | $691 | 3 / 2 | 5,201 | Recent Loyal Heights renovation |
| 7041 14th Ave NW | Mar 23, 2026 | $1,725,000 | 2,890 | $597 | 6 / 3 | 5,001 | Larger renovated craftsman (14th arterial) |
| 7040 16th Ave NW | Mar 20, 2026 | $1,455,000 | 2,300 | $633 | 4 / 3 | 5,101 | Mid-tier renovated |
| 7558 12th Ave NW | Mar 11, 2026 | $1,335,000 | 2,070 | $645 | 4 / 3 | 5,419 | Mid-tier renovated |
| 6526 16th Ave NW | Mar 10, 2026 | $1,338,000 | 2,460 | $544 | 3 / 2 | 6,120 | Mid-tier, slightly larger lot |
| 6520 37th Ave NW | Jul 18, 2025 | $1,590,000 | 2,680 | $593 | 3 / 3 | 9,500 | Largest lot in cohort B; closest lot-size analog |
| 6511 32nd Ave NW | Dec 3, 2024 | $1,335,000 | 2,860 | $467 | 4+ADU / 2.25 | ~5,000 | 1913 fully remodeled craftsman with built ADU |
| 3056 NW 67th St | Jun 24, 2025 | $1,410,000 | 2,240 | $629 | 4 / 2 | 5,000 | 1908 mid-tier reno (NW 67th arterial) |
| 6746 27th Ave NW | Mar 4, 2025 | $1,267,000 | 2,120 | $598 | 4 / 3 | 5,101 | Mid-tier |
| 3211 NW 70th St | Mar 26, 2025 | $1,467,000 | 2,160 | $679 | 4 / 2 | 5,001 | Renovated craftsman |
| Cohort C — New construction (Band 4–5 ceiling reference, n=5, median $/sqft $639) | |||||||
| 2817 NW 66th St | Aug 22, 2025 | $2,250,000 | 3,300 | $682 | 4 / 3.5 | 5,001 | 2017 transitional new build |
| 2809 NW 71st St | Feb 3, 2026 | $2,473,000 | 4,400 | $562 | 6 / 5 | 5,001 | Larger new-build spec |
| 3043 NW 69th St | Apr 18, 2025 | $2,400,000 | 3,220 | $745 | 5 / 4 | 5,001 | 2013 new construction |
| 6102 32nd Ave NW | Apr 3, 2025 | $2,430,000 | 3,804 | $639 | 6 / 4.5 | 5,001 | Recent new build, SW corner lot |
| 7051 Alonzo Ave NW | May 23, 2025 | $2,300,500 | 3,760 | $612 | 5 / 4 | 5,001 | Likely new build |
| Cohort D — Unrenovated / fixer floor (as-is anchor, n=3) | |||||||
| 910 NW 64th St | Feb 27, 2026 | $1,140,000 | 2,530 | $451 | 3 / 2 | 5,001 | Same street; lighter reno or unrenovated |
| 2769 NW 65th St | May 23, 2025 | $1,135,000 | 2,680 | $424 | 4 / 3 | 5,031 | Likely unrenovated (NW 65th arterial) |
| 3026 NW 65th St | May 29, 2025 | $1,250,000 | 2,230 | $561 | 4 / 2 | 5,001 | Older / lighter reno (arterial) |
| Live signal — currently active | |||||||
| 7007 26th Ave NW | Listed Apr 24, 2026 | $1,950,998 ASK | 3,780 | $516 ask | 5 / 4 | 5,100 | Heaton Dainard flip — bought $1.12M Oct 2025, top-tier reno + likely basement ADU. Peter expects above-ask sale within a week. |
Apply Cohort B median $612/sqft × 2,710 sqft + $100K lot premium = $1.76M honest mid-tier-reno ARV. 3230 NW 64th's $820/sqft × 2,710 = $2.22M for top-tier — minus the value of view deck + theater + finished garage (~$300–400K) = $1.85–2.0M defensible Band 4 ARV anchor for 3244 if the work is executed properly.
Four archetypes will look at this listing seriously. Maggie's signal that the seller "expects developer offers but prefers a family" is the operative new fact: it sets the developer floor as a real number to bid against, not a backstop, and it gives the family-narrative posture meaningful negotiating value.
| Archetype | Realistic max bid | Likelihood | Their constraint |
|---|---|---|---|
| Family renovator (you) | $1.40M–$1.50M | HIGH | Honest ARV minus reno minus emotional buffer; lender-constrained |
| DADU-forward family | $1.45M–$1.55M | MEDIUM | Two-dwelling end-state; willing to pay for permit-revival optionality |
| Builder / flipper | $1.10M–$1.25M | LOW | Needs 18–22% gross margin on resale; math doesn't work at list |
| Subdivision developer (NR3 + DADU rule) | $1.40M–$1.45M | MEDIUM-HIGH | Two-unit revenue minus build/soft/holding; the "developer floor" Maggie flagged |
Walk-away math: ARV $1.95M − $550K reno − $50K displacement − 5% emotional buffer ≈ $1.45M ceiling for a disciplined buyer. How you beat them: match price logic and crush them on terms — 21-day close, hard EM, full pre-offer diligence completed, waived contingencies. Most family renovators won't waive on a 1904 home; you can because the seller already shared the inspection.
Effective ceiling: $1.95M (main ARV) + $700K (DADU value) − $700K reno − $400K DADU build = ~$1.55M, typically discounted to $1.45–1.52M for permit-revival risk. How you beat them: match the price logic by also pricing in DADU optionality (your housing search criteria explicitly allows for a future in-law-suite — you don't need to commit on offer day, just don't be priced out), then win on the family narrative.
At list price plus the documented sewer collapse, the math doesn't work. They'll skip or bid well below list. Not your competition.
Path A (renovate main + add DADU + subdivide): land budget at 18% margin ~$1.38M. Path B (demo + rebuild two SFRs): land budget ~$1.40–1.45M. Maggie's "expects developer offers" signal means at least one of these archetypes is actively pricing this lot. They're not a backstop — they're a real competitor. Their max bid sits right at the bottom edge of your zone.
How you beat them: terms beat price. Developers run on private debt with longer due-diligence windows and rarely waive inspection or close in 21 days. Your 21-day, fully-underwritten, mostly-non-contingent offer is structurally cheaper to close than a developer's.
| Bid range | Who bids here | Probability | Family-pref? |
|---|---|---|---|
| < $1.40M | A few flippers; conservative developers; lowball families | ~25% | — |
| $1.40M – $1.45M | Disciplined family renovators; cautious DADU families; subdivision developers (the seller's BATNA) | ~30% | Tilts to family |
| $1.45M – $1.50M | You; aggressive family renovators; mid-confidence DADU families | ~25% | Strongly family |
| $1.50M – $1.55M | Stretched DADU families; over-confident outliers | ~12% | Tilts to family |
| > $1.55M | Irrational / out-of-state buyers; very rare | ~8% | Indifferent |
With the family-preference signal, your $1.45M offer with a $40K credit ask (net $1.41M) sits right at the developer floor — close enough that the seller's preference for a family becomes the tiebreaker. A clean $1.475M family offer would also win, but leaves $30K on the table that the credit ask captures.
All-in cost at the recommended bid: $1.45M purchase + $40K credit recovered + $550K reno + $50K displacement = $1.95–2.05M effective spend (depending on whether credit is netted against purchase). Compared against the renovated Sunset Hill 4-bed cohort:
Apply Cohort B's $612/sqft × 2,710 sqft post-Band-3.5 spec + $100K lot premium = $1.76M honest mid-tier exit. Apply 3230 NW 64th's $820/sqft × 2,710 = $2.22M for top-tier — minus the value of view deck + theater + finished garage that 3230 has and 3244 won't (~$300–400K) = $1.85–2.0M defensible ARV ceiling for honest Band 3.5 work.
Read this honestly. At $1.45M + $550K = $2.0M all-in (before credit), you are paying market-equivalent for a custom-renovated craftsman on the block you want. The credit ask brings the effective spend back to roughly break-even on day-1 paper math. It's not a renovation-arbitrage win — there is no reno-margin cushion at this number. The justification is: 7–15 year owner-occupied hold on an 8,100 sqft NR3 lot west of 32nd in Sunset Hill that you cannot replicate elsewhere.
Your actual planned scope: floors + kitchen + upstairs + bathrooms guts + selective windows. That's between Band 3 ($425K mid) and Band 4 ($675K mid) — call it Band 3.5. GC-walkthrough informed:
| Line item | Range | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Electrical (sheetrocked K&T → partial rewire + Zinsco panel + 200A submain) | $15–22K | Down from $25–35K full rewire — GC confirmed |
| Plumbing — galvanized supply + iron/galv waste repipe | $25–40K | Active leak below bathroom tub forces this |
| Sewer balance (rest of lateral + ROW segment, deferred 3–7 yr) | $15–30K | Reduced by Bob Oates's 35–40 ft work |
| Foundation bolting / seismic retrofit | $15–25K | NEW vs. original Band 3 — inspection surfaced this |
| HVAC — heat pump + ductwork + tankless water heater | $25–45K | Furnace mid-life, water heater past life |
| Floor refinish / replace | $15–30K | Buyer's "guts" scope |
| Kitchen full gut, mid-tier finishes | $80–110K | Buyer's "guts" scope |
| Both bathrooms full gut + master suite | $55–80K | Plus rotted-joist repair $5–10K |
| Upstairs gut (bedrooms + hall + walls + ceilings) | $40–70K | Buyer's "guts" scope |
| Window replacement (Polish import — see §7) | $40–60K | $80–120K with US suppliers; saves $30–40K |
| Cedar shingles | $0 | GC + buyer confirmed great condition |
| Insulation upgrade (attic + crawl + basement) | $10–20K | Inspector flagged minimal attic |
| Asbestos + lead abatement during demo | $10–20K | 1904 home — both highly likely |
| Buried fuel-oil tank scan + decommission if found | $3–15K | Inspector flagged; not yet investigated |
| Carpenter ant remediation + rodent abatement | $5–10K | Documented but no active activity |
| Period detail restoration (built-ins, leaded glass, trim) | $10–20K | Cover-letter narrative reinforcement |
| Chimney liners + cap (wood stove + fireplace) | $3–6K | Inspector flagged; insurance/code |
| 15% contingency on hard scope | $55–75K | Reduced from 18% — GC walkthrough lowers uncertainty |
| Total Band 3.5 renovation | $420–675K · midpoint ~$550K | $125K above original Band 3 mid; well below Band 4 mid |
The mix is the operative thing — Band 4-quality interior outcome (full kitchen + upstairs + baths gut) at Band 3-adjacent cost, because cedar shingles are $0, sheetrocked K&T cuts the electrical, Polish windows cut the window package, and the seller's $12.7K sewer investment cuts the sewer.
For a 25–30 window 1904 craftsman renovation, importing windows from Poland saves $30–40K on the package. Economics:
Egress caveat: European casement windows often ship with default dimensions that don't meet US bedroom egress codes (Seattle: 5.7 sqft clear opening, ≥24" height, ≥20" width, ≤44" sill). Drutex sells US-spec windows but they're not the default — explicitly specify egress-rated configuration when ordering, especially for upstairs bedrooms. Confirm dimensions match the US-spec sticker on each unit at delivery.
Timing: Polish windows have 8–12 week lead time + 4–5 week ocean shipping = roughly 14–17 weeks from order to delivery. Manageable in a 9–12 month renovation but only if the GC orders during demo, not at the end. Add this as an explicit milestone in the renovation timeline.
Every term calibrated to maximize win probability at the recommended price/credit combination. Financing contingency only; everything else waived.
| Term | Recommended | Why |
|---|---|---|
| Purchase price | $1,450,000 | Anchor price. Range $1.43–1.48M; pass on $1.475M unless terms-vs-price intelligence supports it. |
| Repair credit ask | $30K–$50K (anchor at $40K) | Leverages seller's voluntary disclosure. Scoped against insurability items (electrical + plumbing) and inspector-flagged safety (foundation, oil tank, CO alarms). Net to seller: $1.41M. |
| Earnest money | $72,500 (5%) — $30,000 hard at MA | Aggressive within reason. Hard EM signals structural commitment. |
| Financing contingency | Keep — 17 days, conventional | Only contingency kept. Confirm with lender pre-offer that K&T + Zinsco won't trigger a financing condition. |
| Inspection contingency | WAIVE — diligence completed pre-offer | Seller has shared inspection. Buyer has done GC walkthrough. Independent items still done before submission: sewer scope of untouched lateral, oil tank scan, asbestos+lead screens, structural engineer. |
| Title contingency | WAIVE | Order preliminary title commitment today; review pre-offer; waive review. |
| Form 17 / disclosure | WAIVE review contingency | Read Form 17 before offer; waive. |
| Neighborhood / HOA | WAIVE | No HOA. |
| Close date | 21 days from MA | Top-quartile close speed in Seattle. Real differentiator vs. flippers and developers. |
| Possession | Day of closing, no rent-back | If seller asks, offer up to 30 days at $0. 30-year-hold sellers often appreciate this. |
| Escalation clause | DO NOT USE | Lead with conviction at $1.45M. Many listing agents now ignore escalation clauses. |
| Pre-emptive offer | Ask Day 0 | Day 0 buyer's-agent question: "Is the seller open to pre-emptive offers?" Cost of asking is zero. |
| Cover letter | Yes — Peter and Liz, with kid photo | Maggie has explicitly signaled the seller prefers a family. The letter converts that preference into a tiebreaker. See §10. |
Prioritized by likelihood-of-acceptance × magnitude. Open at $40K; expect to settle at $25–30K. Posture is collaborative, not adversarial — the seller has been transparent and the credit ask is targeted against insurability and lender items, not retrade against the listed condition.
| Credit category | Ask | Justification |
|---|---|---|
| Electrical remediation (K&T + Zinsco panel) | $10–15K | Insurability blocker; lender will require remediation as a condition of financing |
| Plumbing (galvanized + active leak rotting joists) | $8–12K | Active defect documented in inspection; not aesthetic |
| Foundation bolting / seismic retrofit | $5–10K | Inspector recommended; safety; no foundation bolts visible |
| Buried fuel oil tank investigation + decommission if needed | $2–5K | Seller has not investigated; risk transfer |
| Carbon monoxide alarms (Washington state law) | $0.5K | RCW 19.27 requires seller to install; symbolic but legally on the seller |
| Active small defects (failed wax ring, utility sink, kitchen S-trap) | $1–2K | Inspector documented; small but symbolic of credit-ask logic |
| Total ask | $26–44K | Open at $40K; settle at $25–30K |
Posture in the offer or counter-discussion:
"We've reviewed the inspection you shared and we appreciate the transparency. We're committed to a Band 3.5 renovation that preserves the period details and we're not asking for credits on items already in our renovation plan. The credit ask covers items that affect insurability and lender financing — electrical and plumbing — plus items the inspector explicitly flagged as safety concerns: foundation, oil tank, CO alarms. Net to you after credit is $1.41M, which is above what we believe the developer-offer floor is for this lot. We close in 21 days waived."
One page, double-spaced, printed on plain white paper, signed in blue pen. Drop with the offer, not as an attachment. Liz should rewrite in her voice — this is a starting point. The acknowledgment of the inspection and Bob Oates work is new from the original — it sells the "we're not going to retrade" promise.
Dear Lucy,
We're Peter and Liz Hargarten, and we have two small children — Margot, who turns three in May, and Remi, who just had his first birthday. We live a few blocks east in Phinney Ridge right now, and Margot will start at Adams Elementary in 2027. We walked past your house twice this week; the leaded-glass front door is the kind of thing you only get in a 1904 home that has been loved.
We are not flippers. We are not developers. If we are lucky enough to be the family you choose, we plan to do a careful renovation that respects the house — keep the fireplaces, refinish the original details, modernize behind the walls — and stay for the next thirty years. The reason we love this block is the same reason you stayed for thirty years.
We've reviewed the home inspection you shared and the December sewer work. We appreciate the transparency. We've also walked the property with our general contractor, who is excited about the project. We've taken the work of due diligence on ourselves so this transaction can be clean for you.
We have a fully underwritten pre-approval, are putting up $72,500 in earnest money with $30,000 of it non-refundable at mutual acceptance, and can close in 21 days. We are asking for a modest credit on the electrical and plumbing items the inspection flagged as conditions of insurability — but otherwise we are not coming back to you for retrade, and we will not extend the close window.
Whatever you decide, we hope the next stewards of 3244 NW 64th love it the way you have. Thank you for considering us.
— Peter, Liz, Margot, and Remi
Seattle review-date offers are functionally sealed bids: submit best/last/final by the review deadline; the seller picks. The framing in your head should be auction theory, not negotiation.
Bid your true price-anchor. The buyer in a sealed bid who held back and lost by $5K is the buyer who later regrets it most. $1,450,000 is the recommendation. Not $1,449,000 (looks like you're hedging) and not $1,475,000 (leaves $25K on the table that the credit ask captures more cleanly).
In a true sealed bid, escalation clauses signal weakness — they reveal you have a higher number. Many listing agents now ignore them. Some sellers prefer firm-number bids for ease of comparison. Exception: if Maggie explicitly says "seller will entertain escalation clauses," use one with a $5K increment and a hard cap of $1.475M. Otherwise, no.
Answer: "$1.45M with the $40K credit is our best and final number. We can sweeten by hardening another $10K of EM and shortening close to 18 days, but we will not raise price and we will not reduce the credit, because the credit covers items required for financing and insurability. The 21-day window is what we need to verify the items the pre-inspection couldn't access."
Most Seattle review-date sellers won't accept pre-emptive offers, but some will, especially 30-year owners tired of the showing process. Action: have your buyer's agent call Maggie today and ask, verbatim: "Is the seller open to reviewing pre-emptive offers, or is the review date firm?" "Yes" creates an enormous strategic opening — submit the offer with a 24-hour expiration. "Firm" loses you nothing.
Define walk-away conditions in advance, in writing, before you're emotionally committed.
| Trigger | Action |
|---|---|
| Not selected on review date | WALK. Do not call back to ask for a counter. Once a sealed-bid result is announced, the winner has 24 hours to MA; chasing creates leverage for the seller and makes it harder to pivot to the next listing. |
| Listing agent calls back with "best and final" | Hold price at $1.45M; hold credit ask at $40K. Sweeten with hard EM and 18-day close. Do NOT raise price. Do NOT reduce the credit ask. |
| Independent sewer scope of untouched lateral shows ROW failure >$30K and seller refuses to credit | Drop bid to $1.40M or walk. Bob Oates's work covered ~35–40 ft; the ROW segment is the highest-cost unknown. |
| Pre-offer diligence finds buried oil tank that's leaked, OR foundation work >$50K, OR asbestos abatement >$40K — pushing Band 3.5 budget above $700K | Drop bid by the cost of the surprise (e.g., $50K) or walk. Pre-offer is the moment to retrade; post-acceptance you cannot. |
| SDCI correction letter on permit 6972158-CN reveals soils issue requiring pile foundation or extra-deep retrofit >$50K | DROP bid to $1.40M (eliminates DADU optionality, but main-house renovation still works) OR walk if soils issue extends to main-house structural work. |
| Lender refuses to fund without K&T full rewire pre-close | Negotiate repair escrow with seller (lender holds $25K of seller proceeds against post-close completion) OR delay close 1–2 weeks for partial pre-close work. If neither works, walk. |
| Maggie reports developer offer above $1.50M with proof-of-funds | Hold position. Family-narrative + 21-day close + waived contingencies still wins above price for this seller archetype. Do NOT engage in price escalation. |
| You win the bid | Order independent third-party sewer scope of untouched segments, structural engineer report, electrical inspector visit within 5 business days. Contingency was waived; you're getting ground truth before reno scoping, not getting out of contract. |
The seller's voluntary disclosure has done most of the work that would have been on the buyer's pre-offer list. What remains:
permitcheck@seattle.gov referencing parcel 690820-0235. Bottleneck: 5–10 business days. Submit today.Removed from the original list because the seller has effectively done it: full-house pre-inspection (Martin Fox covered it); review of December 2025 sewer work (invoices in hand); buyer-funded inspection event (have the report).
This is the line. The $1.45M anchor reflects the recalibrated comp set; the $40K credit ask leverages the seller's voluntary disclosure and family preference. Going to $1.475M leaves $25K on the table; going to $1.50M leaves $50K and makes the day-1 math worse.
21-day close, 5% EM with $30K hard, fully underwritten lender, all contingencies waived except financing, full pre-offer diligence completed. Maggie at Windermere Magnolia weighs execution certainty heavily for 30-year-hold sellers, especially when she's already signaled family preference.
At $1.45M + $550K = $2.0M all-in, you're at the renovated-comp ceiling. If you raise the bid, the only place the extra dollars come from is renovation scope — which is the actual reason you bought the property. The credit ask exists specifically to claw back $25–40K of that headroom.
3244-NW-64th-Bidding-Strategy.docx